Significant Tropical Disturbance Advisory – Atlantic – Friday, August 18, 2017

Please see the attached Significant Tropical Disturbance Advisory – Atlantic for Friday, August 18, 2017.

Significant Tropical Disturbance Advisory – Invest 92L #5

There are no strong changes to the overall structure of 92L, nor any significant changes to the forecast reasoning and track for the system. Invest 92L continues to show deep convection, but lacks the necessary low level circulation to declare the system a depression. Continued strengthening is forecast with 92L likely to become a tropical depression or storm within the next couple of days. Beyond that timeframe, as the system tracks closer to the Bahamas, more unfavorable conditions are expected to weaken the system, and 92L is forecast fall below tropical storm status as it approaches the Florida Strait.

Please see the attached Significant Tropical Disturbance Advisory – Atlantic for Friday, August 18, 2017.

Significant Tropical Disturbance Advisory – Feature 15L #4

Feature 15L is a tropical wave that continues to lack any significant development. In the short term, environmental conditions are not expected to be very favorable, and 15L should remain weak and disorganized through 48 hours or so. Beyond that timeframe, conditions may become a bit more conducive, allowing the system to organize and potentially reach tropical depression status by the end of the forecast period. The track beyond the forecast period takes 15L more northward and into the open Atlantic.

Please see the attached Significant Tropical Disturbance Advisory – Atlantic for Friday, August 18, 2017.

Significant Tropical Disturbance Advisory – Invest 92L #6

Invest 92L continues to track to the west-northwest with some signs of organization along with a slight increase in convection. However, upper level winds are less favorable with moderate to strong northwesterly wind shear in the region. Strong wind shear is expected to continue over the next 36 to 48 hours with the potential for development into a tropical system beyond 48 hours. There remains some potential for tropical storm force conditions to the Turks and Caicos Islands and portions of the Bahamas. Beyond hour 96, the environment is expected to become less favorable with Invest 92L forecast to weaken to a tropical depression.


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