Significant Tropical Disturbance Advisory – Atlantic – Monday, August 21, 2017

Please see the attached Significant Tropical Disturbance Advisory – Atlantic for Monday, August 21, 2017.

Significant Tropical Disturbance Advisory – Harvey #23

The remnants of Harvey continue to move quickly westward toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Significant thunderstorm activity is occurring in association with this system but is generally not well-organized. Strong wind shear is noted just to the north. A continued west to northwest track into the Bay of Campeche with a reduction in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours. Re-development into a depression or storm is only considered a low threat through 36 hours due to the expected land interaction and current lack of organization. After that time conditions over the Bay of Campeche and southwest Gulf of Mexico appear favorable for intensification resulting in a very high threat for tropical cyclone formation.

Please see the attached Significant Tropical Disturbance Advisory – Atlantic for Monday, August 21, 2017.

Significant Tropical Disturbance Advisory – Harvey #25

The remnants of Harvey will move over the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche over the next 12 to 18 hours. Harvey is then expected to regenerate into a tropical cyclone while tracking through the northern Bay of Campeche and the southern Gulf of Mexico. No significant changes to the track or intensity forecast have been made with this update.

Please see the attached Significant Tropical Disturbance Advisory – Atlantic for Tuesday, August 22, 2017.

Significant Tropical Disturbance Advisory – Harvey #27

The remnants of Harvey continue to move across the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Most of the thunderstorms are occurring over the northern portion of the system. This suggests that once over water, Harvey may re-organize a bit farther north than currently forecast. Forecast guidance has again shifted northward with the consensus forecast now for a strong tropical storm or category one hurricane to reach the central Texas coast Friday. Otherwise, there is little change to the previous forecast reasoning with re-development forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours as Harvey moves back over warmer waters. More significant intensification is then expected Thursday and Friday.


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