Please see the attached Tropical Daily Planner – Atlantic for Monday, July 17, 2017.
Invest 95L has organized some over the last several hours as convection around the wave has increased in coverage and intensity. Conditions just out ahead of Invest 95L remain favorable for further development, however, as this system begins to approach the Lesser Antilles in the next day or two, conditions will rapidly deteriorate as strong wind shear and dry air are currently spread across the Caribbean. Given the systems current structure as well as the favorable conditions out ahead of the system, Invest 95L now has a moderate chance for further development over the next five days. In addition to Invest 95L we are also monitoring a tropical wave currently in the central Atlantic near 40W. This wave looks to remain in a favorable region for further development as it tracks west-northwestward, however, model guidance is not very aggressive with development chances for this wave. Given this, this tropical wave has a very low threat for further development over the next five days.