Please see the attached Tropical Threat Outlook – Atlantic for Thursday, July 13, 2017.
Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche – Forecast guidance shows a lack of significant tropical disturbances or organized thunderstorm activity in this region during the 6 to 10 day period. A minimal threat for tropical cyclone activity is forecast as a result.
Caribbean Sea – Strong wind shear is forecast to persist across this region during the 6 to 10 day period resulting in a minimal threat for tropical cyclone activity.
Western Atlantic/East US Coast – Generally unfavourable conditions for tropical cyclone activity are forecast during the 6 to 10 day period. Forecast guidance does not currently show any significant tropical threats for this region during that time.
Antilles to West Africa – Somewhat above average tropical wave activity looks to continue during the 6 to 10 day period. However, persistent dry air surges should serve to limit the overall threat for tropical cyclone development. A low threat is maintained due to the increased wave activity.
North Central Atlantic – As is typical for this time of year, conditions are not expected to favour tropical cyclone development over this region.